(Sept. 15, 2015) — “Solid, sustained increases in this key expenditure area provide a strong argument for the Fed to start to pull back on the currently highly stimulative monetary conditions,” Ferley added. “Our forecast assumes a 25 basis point hike before the end of 2015.”
(Oct. 15, 2015) — “This upward trend, which is occurring despite a sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar, suggests evidence that growth remains sufficiently strong to continue to absorb slack in the economy,” said Ferley, who noted the four-week moving average of jobless claims represented the lowest level since 1973.
(Oct. 9, 2015) — “Canada’s economy cranked out jobs for a third consecutive month in September following a six-month period of more volatile readings,” said Desjardins. “The increases recorded in the first half of the year solidly outpaced the declines, resulting in the average monthly job gain running close to 16,000 during that period.”
(Oct. 8, 2015) — Initial unemployment claims in the United States fell by 13,000 to 263,000 in the week ending Oct. 3 to retrace a revised 9,000 increase to 276,000 (was 277,000) in the previous week. The latest reading was below market expectations for a modest decline to 274,000, RBC Economics reported today.
(Oct. 6, 2015) — The United States’ trade deficit widened to $48.3 billion in August from a revised $41.8 billion shortfall in July. The August nominal merchandise trade deficit in Canada deteriorated more than expected to $2.5 billion from a revised $0.8 billion ($0.6 billion previously) in July.
(Sept. 30, 2015) — Canada’s July gross domestic producte rose by a solid 0.3 percent following the robust 0.4 percent gain in June, which was revised downward from a previously estimated 0.5 percent increase, RBC Economics reported today.
(Sept. 28, 2015) — Spending on durables rose 0.9 percent, in part reflecting a 3 percent rise in new motor vehicle sales. Spending on nondurable goods increased 0.2 percent despite a decline in gasoline prices.
(Sept. 25, 2015) — “The revised second-quarter 2015 GDP numbers remain indicative of growth rebounding sharply from the disappointing 0.6 percent increase recorded in the first quarter,” said Ferley. “The extent of the rebound reinforced the view that much of the weakness at the start of the year was the result of various transitory factor.”
(Sept. 24, 2015) — Motor vehicle sales increased by 2.0 percent in July, which was broadly in line with an earlier-reported rise in unit auto sales in the month. Motor vehicle sales have increased for six consecutive months, with Statistics Canada noting that gains since February have largely reflected higher sales of trucks.
(Sept. 21, 2015) — “This week’s strong manufacturing report, the earlier-reported rise in exports in July, and elevated level of auto sales are consistent with the economy posting a second consecutive increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the month and built on June’s 0.5 percent surge,” said Desjardins.
(Sept. 15, 2015) — Industrial production in the United States fell by 0.4 percent in August following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent jump in July. Nominal retail sales growth in August 2015 moderated to 0.2 percent following an upwardly revised 0.7 percent gain in July.
(Sept. 14, 2015) — In the release of the second-quarter 2015 National Balance Sheet Accounts, a strong seasonal bounce in residential mortgage borrowing contributed to the debt-to-income ratio rising to a new record high during the three-month period at 164.6 percent from 163.0 percent in the first quarter of 2015, RBC Economics reported.
(Sept. 10, 2015) — Recent claims data point to strong job growth continuing in September; however, given limited slack remaining in the U.S. labor market, it is reasonable to expect that job gains will moderate slightly albeit to still solid levels in the coming months,” said Nye.
(Sept. 4, 2015) — “The employment gain in August was smaller than expected; however, upward revisions to prior months take much of the sting out of the disappointment in the monthly reading,” said Janzen.
(Sept. 1, 2015) — Second-quarter 2015 gross domestic product growth in Canada dropped by a smaller than expected 0.5 percent following a 0.8 percent decline in the first quarter (previously estimated as -0.6 percent), RBC Economics reported.
(Aug. 27, 2015) — Market expectations had been for a smaller upward revision to 3.2 percent in the quarter, said Josh Nye, an RBC economist. “The upwardly revised second-quarter gain indicated an even stronger rebound in activity following a disappointing 0.6 percent annualized increase in the first quarter,” he explained.
(Aug. 20, 2015) — “Initial claims readings have drifted modestly higher in recent weeks, although the range has been relatively stable compared with the volatile readings in the first few weeks of July,” said Nye. “That likely reflected seasonal adjustment issues surrounding the Independence Day holiday and summer shutdowns for auto sector retooling.
(Aug. 19, 2015) — Expectations for moderation in the monthly rate were premised on indications that gasoline price increases eased in the July. Such was confirmed in today’s release with this component rising by 0.9 percent after a 3.4 percent jump in June.
(Aug. 13, 2015) — Motor vehicle sales posted a 1.4 percent gain, which was in line with an earlier-reported rise in unit auto sales in the month; however, excluding the auto component, sales were also as expected, rising by 0.4 percent in July following a 0.4 percent increase (was -0.1 percent) in June.
(Aug. 7, 2015) — July payroll employment in America rose by 215,000 following upwardly revised gains in June of 231,000 (223,000 previously) and in May of 260,000 (254,000 previously). In Canada, employment rose by 6,600 in July 2015, fully offsetting the 6,400 dip recorded in June.