RBC Economics

(April 11, 2018) — “That is fully consistent with the view that interest rates will continue to grind higher,” said Nathan Janzen, senior economist, RBC.

(July 19, 2017) — Manufacturing shipments rose 1.1 percent in May, the third consecutive monthly increase. April’s 0.4 percent gain was revised down from a previously-reported 1.1 percent increase.

(Dec. 15, 2016) — As expected, the FOMC voted to raise the target range for the fed funds rate to 0.50-0.75 percent, RBC Economics reported.

(Dec. 14, 2016) — The aggregate net worth of Canadian households increased in Q3/16 as household assets rose by 7.3 percent from a year-ago to reach $12.2 trillion. Strong performance in financial markets underpinned a surge in equity and bond valuations, which in turn, supported an 8.7 percent increase in financial assets (to $6.4 trillion).

(Dec. 14, 2016) — Motor vehicle sales fell by 0.5 percent as unit auto sales edged down to a still-solid 17.8 million annualized unit pace (the year-to-date average of 17.4 million units matches last year’s record high), RBC Economics reported.

(Oct. 18, 2016) — The headline consumer price index inflation picked up to 1.5 percent year-over-year from 1.1 percent in August, matching market expectations. Core inflation edged down to 2.2 percent in September.

(June 1, 2016) — “The Fed has shifted its tone in recent weeks, leaving the door open to a rate hike as early as June if there is sufficient evidence of a second-quarter rebound and further progress toward the committee’s dual objectives,” said Nye.

(March 15, 2016) — Nominal retail sales in February 2016 dropped by 0.1 percent, which was slightly less than the 0.2 percent drop that had been expected, a release from RBC Economics reported. The decline followed a 0.4 percent decline in January that was revised downward from a previously estimated increase of 0.2 percent.

(Jan. 22, 2016) –Nominal Canadian retail sales in November surged by 1.7 percent in the month following the 0.1 percent increase in October. The year-over-year rate of inflation picked up to 1.6 percent from 1.4 percent in November.

(July 30, 2015) — “The outsized decline in initial claims was a surprise to markets because it appeared as an unexpected increase in the first week of July, which likely reflected seasonal adjustment issues surrounding the Independence Day holiday and auto sector retooling,” said Nye.

(May 29, 2015) — The second estimate of first-quarter 2015 gross domestic product growth in the United States was revised downward to a 0.7 percent annualized decline from the 0.2 percent increase reported in the advance estimate, RBC Economics reported. First-quarter 2015 GDP growth in Canada unexpectedly declined by an annualized 0.6 percent in the quarter following a downwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in the fourth quarter of 2014.

(April 23, 2015) — “Although job gains at the rate observed in the last 12 months are likely to become increasingly difficult to maintain, given slow growth in the working-age population and shrinking slack in labor markets, we expect increases going forward will still be stronger than the March rise,” said Janzen.

(March 19, 2015) — “Today’s initial claims reading was encouraging, because it retraced little of the substantial 35,000 decline seen in the prior week; however, the four-week moving average remained above 300,000 for a third consecutive week,” said Nye.

(Feb. 6, 2015) — “Although the pace of gains in employment during the last three months should be difficult to be maintained on a sustained basis, given shrinking slack in the labor market, our forecast assumes that economic growth will continue to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate going forward,” said Janzen.

(Jan. 30, 2015) — These gains, which followed a weather-related 2.1 percent decline in first quarter, left 2014 growth at 2.4 percent, which is the strongest annual increase since 2010 and up from 2.2 percent in 2013, said Nye.

(Jan. 29, 2015) — “This marked the lowest reading since April 2000 and was below market expectations for a 300,000 level, although difficulties seasonally adjusting the data in a week shortened by the Martin Luther King, Jr. Day holiday may have played a role in the decline,” said Janzen.

(Jan. 23, 2015) — Nominal retail sales in November came in much stronger than expected by rising 0.4 percent when market expectations had been for a decline of 0.2 percent, RBC Economics reported today.

(Jan. 22, 2015) — Initial unemployment claims in the United States fell by 10,000 to 307,000 in the week ending Jan. 17, which only partially retraced a cumulative 36,000 increase in the preceding four weeks, RBC Economics announced.

(Jan. 16, 2015) — Consumer prices fell by 0.4 percent in December, thereby marking the largest monthly decline in six years and building on a 0.3 percent drop in November, RBC Economics reported.

(Jan. 14, 2015) — “Despite the decline in December retail sales, earlier strength bodes well for fourth-quarter 2014 real consumer spending growth to strengthen to an annualized 4.0 percent from the already solid 3.2 percent recorded in the third quarter,” said Ferley.


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